Archive for mind of a trader

Are you looking for the forex lotto ticket?

Are you trading forex or playing super lotto?

Are you trading forex or playing super lotto?

I’ve just been perusing the internet for different forex strategies and I can’t go anywhere without being bombarded by super-hypey sales pages that guarantee I’m going to be a millionaire by the end of the month! Then I ask myself, if this is what these so called “gurus” are marketing, do most traders expect that they’re going to make a ton of money with a small investment, in a small amount of time? It sounds to me like purchasing lotto tickets.
 
So I’ve got to know… If you knew it was possible to make $5,000, $20,000, or even $50,000 on a small account of $500-$2,000 like some of these sites claim, would you still get and use a strategy that allowed you to do that EVEN IF you were told that the chance of blowing your account was more than a percent or two?
OR…
 
Would you be happy with just proving to yourself that you could make “smaller” and more realistic sums of money at first, then increasing your leverage and adding strategies later on as you gain more experience? When I say “smaller and realistic”, I still mean beating the long term stock market average by a good margin while still keeping your account very safe and avoiding short term gyrations in the market that stop people out so often.
 
This is important for me to know so I can write about strategies with the correct degree of agressiveness. I tend to be more on the safe side, but lever up a lot depending on my level of certainty, but you may be different.
 
Whoever comes up with the best response by posting on the blog (form is below) in the next few days receives a FREE SCHOLARSHIP package that includes my “Interviews with Star Traders”  audio series (where I interview forex hedge fund and bank traders) plus my “Forex Trading Excellence” Ebook package (which includes both special forex trading strategies and emotion-free-trading tactics). Please take a minute to get the opportunity to win this $340 bonus package.
 
Make your commnet now by posting below in the “leave a reply” section!!

Trading Psychology- Emotion Free Forex Trading Training

Successful trading is 20% mechanics and 80% psychology. I’ve created this video to help you understand what negative psychology is holding you back from successful trading and train yourself to trade forex profitably and without emotions. This is basically everything that I’ve gathered from my own experiences, from modeling after star traders from banks and hedge funds, and from trading psychology experts like Van Tharp.

Shift from “Green Shoots” perception of economic recovery: look at USD, CAD

“]Daily chart of WTI Crude Oil [source: Dukascopy]

Daily chart of WTI Crude Oil [source: Dukascopy


Last week marked a turning point in perceptions of a global economic recovery emerging (a.k.a. “Green Shoots”) especially with this week’s FOMC meeting on the horizon. The new sentiment in the markets is captured well by today’s headline in the Financial Times: “Recession Worries Rattle Markets.” Let’s take a look at what going on across multiple markets to get a clue for currency trades: Oil tried to rally upon the increasing instability in Iran but couldn’t hold above the $70/bbl figure. Stocks went down upon several weak figures, including industrial production, empire state manufacturing, and others. The remarks by the IMF that China could recover soon and pick up global demand was also not well received.

The Euro has been trading in a declining range against the dollar (see my previous post about factors weighing Euro outcomes for more information) and particularly hasn’t been able to respond positively to good news supporting the “green shoots” perception such as last week’s larger than expected and increasing ZEW survey outcome. The pound has been ranging at high levels due to a perception that the UK may still turn around fast and the political situation is now under control, however the sentiment shift is affecting its upside as well. Traders who got in in the 1. 40s and 1.50s when I originally started speaking about the imbalances should start reducing their longs and move toward a more neutral bias or take their big 1000 pip profits altogether.

In short the shift in perception away from economic recovery has led to Dollar strength if it is looked at as an individual currency (this can be done with a mathematical algorithm and I will start posting my plots of this, especially if I get reminders). Currencies are starting to show signs of weakening but have not yet given way to Dollar strength yet. A trigger that could reverse currencies would be a remark from the Fed that although there have been signs of recovery, they will not tighten for a long time or that housing has shown no clear signs of bottoming. Traders are focused now on the Fed’s exit strategy and the housing market. If the housing market doesn’t show convincing signs of a recovery, other sectors such as jobs and retail won’t be able to recover either. These are just possibilities, but traders should consider any catalysts that could start driving currencies down and supporting the dollar. Remember our formula: imbalance + sentiment shift = price movement. In this case, I believe a medium term imbalance is the behavior of traders: they started bidding up currencies dramatically over the last couple of months due to a framing bias (focusing solely on the notion that the economy was recovering). It is not a strong imbalance, although there needs to be a newer, stronger belief to emerge in the market before the dollar weakens further. Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar (CAD) has weakened rapidly, no doubt due to weakening crude prices. Because of greater risks to the downside in crude oil after its rapid increase on the recovery story and the BOC’s concern of Canada’s ability to export with a stronger currency during this time, the CAD is particularly vulnerable.

The 5 Steps to becoming a successful trader

 I came across the following article from a network of people that I interact with. Some of you may already recognize it and could let me know who the author is, because the article has been floating around without a name and I’d be happy to give credit where it’s due.

The author outlines the 5 stages that a trader must go through before becoming successful. I’ve made several mistakes during each stage before I got to where I am now and don’t regret any of them. I hope that this provides a pathway or rather some certainty that you will make it as a profitable trader if you envision yourself as one and do things in your best interest.

My advice is to read this, determine where you are, and see the path to reaching those higher levels. If you focus on a goal and take action then you will hit it.

Step One: Unconscious Incompetence.

This is the first step you take when starting to look into trading. you know that its a good way of making money because you’ve heard so many things about it and heard of so many millionaires. Unfortunately, just like when you first desire to drive a car you think it will be easy – after all, how hard can it be? Price either moves up or down – what’s the big secret to that then – lets get cracking!

Unfortunately, just as when you first take your place in front of a steering wheel you find very quickly that you haven’t got the first clue about what you’re trying to do. You take lots of trades and lots of risks. When you enter a trade it turns against you so you reverse and it turns again .. and again, and again.

You may have initial success, and thats even worse – cos it tells your brain that this really is simple and you start to risk more money.

You try to turn around your losses by doubling up every time you trade. Sometimes you’ll get away with it but more often than not you will come away scathed and bruised You are totally oblivious to your incompetence at trading.

This step can last for a week or two of trading but the market is usually swift and you move onth the next stage.

Step Two – Conscious Incompetence

Step two is where you realise that there is more work involved in trading and that you might actually have to work a few things out. You consciously realise that you are an incompetent trader – you don’t have the skills or the insight to turn a regular profit.

You now set about buying systems and e-books galore, read websites based everywhere from USA to the Ukraine. and begin your search for the holy grail. During this time you will be a system nomad – you will flick from method to method day by day and week by week never sticking with one long enough to actually see if it does work. Every time you come upon a new indicator you’ll be ecstatic that this is the one that will make all the difference.

You will test out automated systems on Metatrader, you’ll play with moving averages, Fibonacci lines, support & resistance, Pivots, Fractals, Divergence, DMI, ADX, and a hundred other things all in the vein hope that your ‘magic system’ starts today. You’ll be a top and bottom picker, trying to find the exact point of reversal with your indicators and you’ll find yourself chasing losing trades and even adding to them because you are so sure you are right.

You’ll go into the live chat room and see other traders making pips and you want to know why it’s not you – you’ll ask a million questions, some of which are so dumb that looking back you feel a bit silly. You’ll then reach the point where you think all the ones who are calling pips after pips are liars – they cant be making that amount because you’ve studied and you don’t make that, you know as much as they do and they must be lying. But they’re in there day after day and their account just grows whilst yours falls.

You will be like a teenager – the traders that make money will freely give you advice but you’re stubborn and think that you know best – you take no notice and overtrade your account even though everyone says you are mad to – but you know better. You’ll consider following the calls that others make but even then it wont work so you try paying for signals from someone else – they don’t work for you either.

You might even approach a ‘guru’ like Rob Booker or someone on a chat board who promises to make you into a trader(usually for a fee of course). Whether the guru is good or not you wont win because there is no replacement for screen time and you still think you know best.

This step can last ages and ages – in fact in reality talking with other traders as well as personal experience confirms that it can easily last well over a year and more nearer 3 years. This is also the step when you are most likely to give up through sheer frustration.

Around 60% of new traders die out in the first 3 months – they give up and this is good – think about it – if trading was easy we would all be millionaires. another 20% keep going for a year and then in desperation take risks guaranteed to blow their account which of course it does.

What may suprise you is that of the remaining 20% all of them will last around 3 years – and they will think they are safe in the water – but even at 3 years only a further 5-10% will continue and go on to actually make money consistently.

By the way – they are real figures, not just some ive picked out of my head – so when you get to 3 years in the game dont think its plain sailing from there.

Iv had many people argue with me about these timescales – funny enough none of them have been trading for more that 3 years – if you think you know better then ask on a board for someone who’s been trading 5 years and ask them how long it takes to become fully 100% proficient. Sure i guess there will be exceptions to the rle – but i havent met any yet.

Eventually you do begin to come out of this phase. You’ve probably committed more time and money than you ever thought you would, lost 2 or 3 loaded accounts and all but given up maybe 3 or 4 times but now its in your blood

One day – im a split second moment you will enter stage 3.

Step Three – The Eureka Moment

Towards the end of stage two you begin to realise that it’s not the system that is making the difference. You realise that its actually possible to make money with a simple moving average and nothing else IF you can get your head and money management right You start to read books on the psychology of trading and identify with the characters portrayed in those books and finally comes the eureka moment.

The eureka moment causes a new connection to be made in your brain. You suddenly realise that neither you, nor anyone else can accurately predict what the market will do in the next ten seconds, never mind the next 20 mins.

Because of this revelation you stop taking any notice of what anyone thinks – what this news item will do, and what that event will do to the markets. You become an individual with your own method of trading

You start to work just one system that you mould to your own way of trading, you’re starting to get happy and you define your risk threshold.

You start to take every trade that your ‘edge’ shows has a good probability of winning with. When the trade turns bad you don’t get angry or even because you know in your head that as you couldn’t possibly predict it it isn’t your fault – as soon as you realise that the trade is bad you close it . The next trade or the one after it or the one after that will have higher odds of success because you know your system works.

You stop looking at trading results from a trade-to-trade perspective and start to look at weekly figures knowing that one bad trade does not a poor system make.

You have realised in an instant that the trading game is about one thing – consistency of your ‘edge’ and your discipline to take all the trades no matter what as you know the probabilities stack in your favour.

You learn about proper money management and leverage – risk of account etc etc – and this time it actually soaks in and you think back to those who advised the same thing a year ago with a smile. You weren’t ready then, but you are now. The eureka moment came the moment that you truly accepted that you cannot predict the market.

Step Four – Conscious Competence

You are making trades whenever your system tells you to. You take losses just as easily as you take wins You now let your winners run to their conclusion fully accepting the risk and knowing that your system makes more money than it looses and when you’re on a loser you close it swiftly with little pain to your account

You are now at a point where you break even most of the time – day in day out, you will have weeks where you make 100 pips and weeks where you lose 100 pips – generally you are breaking even and not losing money. You are now conscious of the fact that you are making calls that are generally good and you are getting respect from other traders as you chat the day away. You still have to work at it and think about your trades but as this continues you begin to make more money than you lose consistently.

You’ll start the day on a 20 pip win, take a 35 pip loss and have no feelings that you’ve given those pips back because you know that it will come back again. You will now begin to make consistent pips week in and week out 25 pips one week, 50 the next and so on.

This lasts about 6 months

Step Five – Unconscious Competence

Now we’re cooking – just like driving a car, every day you get in your seat and trade – you do everything now on an unconscious level. You are running on autopilot. You start to pick the really big trades and getting 200 pips in a day doesnt make you any more excited that getting 1 pips.

You see the newbies in the forum shouting ‘go dollar go’ as if they are urging on a horse to win in the grand national and you see yourself – but many years ago now.

This is trading utopia – you have mastered your emotions and you are now a trader with a rapidly growing account.

You’re a star in the trading chat room and people listen to what you say. You recognise yourself in their questions from about two years ago. You pass on your advice but you know most of it is futile because they’re teenagers – some of them will get to where you are – some will do it fast and others will be slower – literally dozens and dozens will never get past stage two, but a few will.

Trading is no longer exciting – in fact it’s probably boring you to bits – like everything in life when you get good at it or do it for your job – it gets boring – you’re doing your job and that’s that.

Finally you grow out of the chat rooms and find a few choice people who you converse with about the markets without being influenced at all.

All the time you are honing your methods to extract the maximum profit from the market without increasing risk. Your method of trading doesnt change – it just gets better – you now have what women call ‘intuition’

You can now say with your head held high “I’m a currency trader” but to be honest you dont even bother telling anyone – it’s a job like any other.

I hope youve enjoyed reading this journey into a traders mind and that hopefully youve identified with some points in here.

Remember that only 5% will actually make it – but the reason for that isnt ability, its staying power and the ability to change your perceptions and paradigms as new information comes available.

The losers are those who wanted to ‘get rich quick’ but approached the market and within 6 months put on a pair of blinkers so they couldnt see the obvious – a kind of “this is the way i see it and thats that” scenario – refusing to assimilate new information that changes that perception.

Im happy to tell you that the reason i started trading was because of the ‘get rich quick’ mindset. Just that now i see it as ‘get rich slow’

If youre thinking about giving up i have one piece of advice for you ….

Ask yourself the question “how many years would you go to college if you knew for a fact that there was a million dollars a year job at the end of it?

Take care and good trading to you all.